Ukraine - When Opining War Experts Can't Read Maps
April 02, 2024
No one expects that western officials are knowledgeable - especially not with regards to facts. But some exceed even the lowest expectations one might have - and no, not to the upside.
Consider this op-ed by Evelyn N. Farkas, published two days ago:
Ukraine is not losing; US assistance must continue - The Hill, Mar 31 2024
The congressional faction that opposes Ukraine assistance shares a common talking point with the Kremlin — that Ukraine is losing the war with Russia anyway. Having just returned from Ukraine, where I met with top Ukrainian officials and participated in a security conference, I have found substantial evidence to the contrary.
All Farkas did was to talk with some Ukraine boosters in Kiev. She has penned down whatever they claimed and now tries to sell that as the real. She thinks she is qualified to do so because she once held a high position in U.S. Defense Department:
Evelyn N. Farkas, Ph.D., is executive director of the McCain Institute and former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia.
This however proves that she is extremely miss-informed and totally unqualified to make any judgment:
While the Ukrainians hardly welcome a new Russian offensive in the spring or summer, they believe it is likely. The officials we met with explained that Putin needs to show progress, some kind of victory to justify renewed mobilization and, emboldened now by his fake elections, he is likely to move on the ground and may try once again to open a land corridor to Crimea. But such decisions may plant the seeds of military overreach.
The land corridor between Crimea and the rest of the Russian Federation was established in early March 2022, less than two weeks after the current phase of the war had started.
At that time even the maps by the neo-conned Institute for the Study of War said so:
The maps by the French Ministry of Defense confirmed the connection:
That land corridor has existed since and has never been interrupted. The Ukrainian 'counter attack' last summer was supposed to break through that corridor. It failed. Meanwhile Russia is strengthening the territory and increasing its value by building a new railway (red) along the coast of the Sea of Azov which will significantly shorten the train connection along the corridor.
The Ukrainian military does not like that and will attempt to destroy the new line (edited machine translation):
Ukraine also promises to strike at the railway, which the Russian Federation has been building for more than a year along the Sea of Azov in the occupied territory of Ukraine. It can be a serious problem, says Kirill Budanov, chief of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine."The construction process is almost complete, and this may pose a serious problem for us," Budanov said, making it clear that the Ukrainian military is already preparing to launch strikes on the railway. "We have experience in this, and it is much easier than the issue of the Crimean Bridge," Budanov said.
Budanov's latest operation, last month's incursion into Russia towards Belgograd, was a serious failure. The troops involved had extremely high losses.
The Russian military will expect saboteurs at the new rail line and will know how to handle those. It also has its own railway troops which can repair damages to train lines in a shorter time than it takes to sabotage those.
As for Farkas - one really wonders how such a blunder could pass by her intern who wrote that piece, her own eyes, as well as those of the editors of The Hill who supposedly read through it before it was published.
This says something about the quality of analysis coming out of Washington DC - and no, not to the upside.
h/t Lee Slusher
Posted by b on April 2, 2024 at 9:22 UTC | Permalink